The development of China's renewable resources industry has greatly supported the global response to climate change, which reflects the responsibility and mission of a major country.
In recent years, the Chinese government has gradually put forward a new energy security strategy, implemented the energy revolution strategy, promoted energy consumption, supply, technology and institutional revolution, and promoted all-round foreign energy cooperation. The goal is to build a safe, efficient, green, clean and low-carbon modern energy system.
Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, a series of major plans and policies in China's energy sector have been introduced intensively, forming a strategic planning system for promoting the energy revolution.
In recent years, the development and utilization of photovoltaics in China has accelerated significantly. The new infrastructure in the low-carbon field represented by photovoltaics is a balance point between short-term stable growth and medium- and long-term economic restructuring, and it is also an important direction for the current stable growth policy.
1. China PV Rapid development: beyond imagination
In the past ten years, China's photovoltaic power generation capacity has ranked first in the world, forming a relatively complete photovoltaic technology industry system, making important contributions to the construction of ecological civilization.
Looking back on history, we can witness the glory.
(1) The solar industry scale continues to expand
The development of China's photovoltaic industry has undergone tremendous changes, and the vivid figures tell people that the photovoltaic industry is indeed growing at an unimaginable speed.
In 2012, China's polycrystalline production was 70,000 tons, and in 2021, the output will increase to 505,000 tons, 7.2 times that of 10 years ago.
In 2012, China produced 23 gigawatts of solar cells, and in 2021, production will grow to 198 gigawatts, 8.6 times that of 10 years ago.
In 2012, China's newly installed solar capacity was 4.5 GW, and in 2021, 54.88 GW will be installed, which is 12.2 times that of 10 years ago.
In 2012, the cumulative installed capacity of solar power in China was 8 GW, and the cumulative installed capacity in 2021 is 300 GW, which is 37.5 times that of 10 years ago.
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The development of China's photovoltaic industry is indeed eye-catching, and it currently ranks as the "world's first" position, not only in terms of scale, but also in quality, or even a "leap".
From the perspective of key materials, during 2012-2021, polysilicon production has not only increased by more than 6 times, but also the market share has also increased from 30% to 78.4%.
(2) Continuous improvement in quality
In terms of development quality, the intelligent level of China's photovoltaic industry is also constantly improving.
In recent years, China has vigorously promoted technological innovation and model innovation in the fields of artificial intelligence, big data, robotics, advanced computing and industrial Internet integration, and progress has been very rapid, basically reaching the forefront of the world.
In this context, China has made significant progress in the intelligent upgrading of industries such as the construction of intelligent photovoltaic factories, breakthroughs in intelligent manufacturing technology and equipment, supply of intelligent photovoltaic products, construction, operation and maintenance of intelligent photovoltaic systems, and development of the intelligent photovoltaic industry.
(3) The application market continues to expand
From the perspective of the application market, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics in China has not only increased by dozens of times, but also regards photovoltaic development as an important poverty alleviation channel. The construction of photovoltaic power plants has benefited the vast rural areas and made positive contributions to the country's decisive battle against poverty.
At present, China has built a total of 26.36 million kilowatts of photovoltaic poverty alleviation power stations, benefiting nearly 60,000 impoverished villages and 4.15 million impoverished households, generating electricity generation revenue of about 18 billion yuan each year, creating many opportunities for rural poverty alleviation and enriching farmers. the "money bag".
2. PV Development Status: Exciting
The photovoltaic industry is one of China's strategic emerging industries, which is of great significance for adjusting the energy structure, promoting the revolution of energy production and consumption, and promoting the construction of ecological civilization.
In recent years, under the guidance of national policies and driven by technological innovation, the photovoltaic industry has maintained a rapid growth trend, the scale of the industry has continued to expand, and the technology has been iteratively updated. Currently, it has achieved a leading edge in the global market.
Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China's photovoltaic power generation has achieved leapfrog development, the installed capacity has ranked first in the world, and the proportion of power generation has steadily increased, making important contributions to energy structure adjustment and pollution reduction and carbon reduction. come out.
At present, the development of China's photovoltaic power generation industry is in full swing, and the number of market players is increasing. Veterans and recruits go hand in hand. You are chasing each other, competition is intensifying, and the market space is constantly expanding.
(1) The numbers are very bright
According to data from the China Electricity Council, by the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of solar power in China has exceeded 300 million kilowatts, reaching 310 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%. Solar thermal power generation is 570,000 kilowatts.
In 2021, China's newly installed solar power generation capacity will be 54.93 million kilowatts, including 25.6 million kilowatts of centralized power stations and 29.28 million kilowatts of distributed power stations. From the perspective of the layout of newly installed capacity, the regions with a higher proportion of installed capacity are North China, East China and Central China. They accounted for 39%, 19% and 15% of the newly installed capacity nationwide.
In 2021, China's solar power generation will reach 327 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%; the utilization rate of solar power generation will reach 98%;
According to media reports, in the first five months of 2022, China's newly installed renewable energy capacity reached 42.81 million kilowatts, accounting for 81% of the country's newly installed power generation capacity, and the power generation reached 1.06 trillion kilowatt-hours.
In recent years, the development policies of China's photovoltaic industry have been continuously improved, the scale of the industry has continued to expand, and technology has continued to improve, resulting in a continuous decline in cost, even cheaper than traditional fossil energy, and the continuous improvement of market competitiveness, which makes the government no longer need to subsidy.
(2) Huge export market
China is currently the world's largest photovoltaic manufacturing power. In addition to meeting some of its own needs, it can also export to the world.
Strong overseas demand is driving China's PV module exports, as the sharp fluctuations in fossil energy prices also promote the replacement of fossil energy by renewable energy sources such as photovoltaics.
Since 2022, there have been frequent reports of favorable policies for the photovoltaic industry in overseas markets. With the growth of overseas demand, China's photovoltaic industry has "bloomed more" in overseas markets.
According to China Customs export data, China exported 14.4 gigawatts (GW, 1 billion watts) of photovoltaic modules in May 2022, a year-on-year increase of 95%.
From January to May 2022, China's photovoltaic modules exported a total of 63.4 GW, a year-on-year increase of 102%, and the international market demand is huge.
In the first five months of 2022, China's PV module exports to Europe reached 34 GW, a year-on-year increase of 129%, but in May 2022, exports to Europe reached 9 GW, a month-on-month increase of 15%.
In the first half of 2022, the construction of distributed photovoltaics in China has accelerated significantly. As the impact of the epidemic is expected to gradually subside, it is expected that the construction of large-scale photovoltaic bases will continue to accelerate in the second half of 2022.
In the first four months of 2022, nearly 60% of the increase in electricity consumption in China's entire society comes from new energy power generation.
According to data from the National Energy Administration, China currently has 121 GW of photovoltaic power generation projects under construction.
Judging from the annual trend in 2022, the National Energy Administration expects that China's annual photovoltaic power generation may reach 108 GW, which is expected to increase by 95.9% year-on-year.
(3) Realize affordable Internet access
China's photovoltaic centralized power stations and industrial and commercial distributed projects have entered the era of grid parity.
In May 2021, the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Matters Concerning the Development and Construction of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2021", which clarified that in 2021, a national financial subsidy of 500 million yuan will be given to household photovoltaic power generation projects, and the grid companies will ensure that the electricity is connected to the grid for consumption. .
In June 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Matters Concerning the 2021 New Energy Feed-in Tariff Policy", which clarified that from 2021, the central government will no longer subsidize the newly registered centralized photovoltaic power plants, industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic projects, Implement affordable Internet access.
Of course, the cost of solar power generation must also take into account the cost of installation space, access costs and consumption costs.
In recent years, the equipment cost of solar power generation in China has dropped significantly, and the cost of photovoltaic modules has dropped from 50 yuan/W in 2000 to about 2 yuan/W.
Although the annual power generation hours of solar energy is only about 1/3 of the annual utilization hours of coal-fired power generation, its power generation cost is close to that of coal-fired power generation and much lower than that of gas-fired power generation.
During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the cost of each link of the photovoltaic industry chain has steadily decreased, the price of polysilicon has dropped by 24.9%, the price of silicon wafers, cells and modules has dropped by more than 50%, and the system price has dropped by 47.2%. Cheap Internet access.
It seems unimaginable that about 10 years ago, the cost of photovoltaics in China was still around 1 yuan/kWh, and the current cost reduction has exceeded 80%, which is probably the real driving force for the rapid development.
At present, photovoltaics have achieved parity or even low-cost Internet access, and the cost of photovoltaic kWh is expected to drop to 0.1 yuan to 0.15 yuan at the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
3 Development problems: need to be resolved
The photovoltaic power generation industry has a variety of technologies, a long industrial chain, a small monomer scale, a large space occupied area, a large number of projects, and a large capital demand. To achieve high-quality development, it is necessary to innovate in the industrial chain, project approval, land supply, and capital. Ensure that all links such as guarantee do a good job in policy connection, and form a synergy between relevant subjects.
Although the problem of insufficient economical efficiency of photovoltaic power generation has been basically solved, due to the insufficient adaptability of the power system to the connection and consumption of large-scale and high-proportion new energy sources, coupled with obvious constraints on land resources, the development of the solar power generation industry is still face many difficulties.
At present, the bottleneck of renewable energy development, including solar power generation, is mainly reflected in installation space and reception capacity.
(1) The installation space problem needs to be solved
Unlike fossil energy sources such as coal, oil, and natural gas, photovoltaic power generation is not stored in underground deposits. It is a low-density energy source and requires a large enough installation space.
So the question is, if solar energy is vigorously developed, where to find suitable installation space? This is actually a huge bottleneck problem that needs to be solved practically.
From the perspective of finding the direction of photovoltaic power generation installation space, the roof of the building is a key direction, and it is very likely to become one of the important photovoltaic resource bearing places.
At present, the roofs and vertical surfaces that can receive enough sunlight in China's urban and rural buildings exceed 10 billion square meters, which shows broad development potential.
If China develops and utilizes all the above-mentioned building surfaces, it is estimated that it can generate 2 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year, which is about 28% of the current annual total power generation.
Governments at all levels in China should support farmers to use their own building roofs to build household photovoltaics, cultivate new market players in rural areas, and realize the integrated development of photovoltaic industry development and rural revitalization.
Governments at all levels should deepen the reform of "decentralization, regulation and service" in the photovoltaic field, continue to improve the efficiency of project approval, improve project land control rules, ensure reasonable space requirements for development, and improve fiscal and financial policies.
For the vast rural areas, the construction of rooftop photovoltaic systems can solve the problem of photovoltaic layout space. It can not only solve the problem of farmers' production and living electricity consumption, but also can transmit the surplus electricity to the power grid. It may also partially solve the problem of increasing farmers' income, which is practical for revitalizing the rural economy. significance.
(2) Consumption capacity needs to be solved
Of course, the energy revolution includes the rural energy revolution. In the implementation of the overall energy revolution, the country should take all aspects into consideration, implement an integrated layout, and achieve system optimization.
This is also a major bottleneck for the solar power generation capacity, and it is also a big problem that needs to be solved by the government.
At present, it is indeed difficult for the grid to absorb more renewable energy, including solar power, due to the lack of sufficient flexible power sources.
The power system needs instantaneous balance, so flexible power sources must be developed to ensure the safety and stability of power supply. However, renewable energy sources such as solar energy are intermittent and cannot ensure the safety and stability of grid operation. This is the fatal injury of renewable energy power generation.
It can be seen that a flexible power supply must be developed, that is to say, the power supply of the power grid itself can be flexibly adjusted according to the requirements of the power demand side, and the rigid load of electric energy can be turned into a flexible load, which is to solve the bottleneck of renewable energy power generation such as solar energy. the key.
In the future, China should combine smart charging piles for new energy vehicles with urban buildings and use them as flexible loads that can receive external renewable energy power.
Through virtual power plant technology, urban buildings can become loads of flexible electricity consumption, and can even play the role of flexible power sources. Flexible DC transmission technology stores and releases electrical energy.
The virtual power plant technology can not only effectively deal with the peak-to-valley difference caused by irregular power consumption, but also increase the ability of the grid to receive wind power and photovoltaics.
The rural energy revolution may bring huge spillover effects. In addition to solving the problem of clean heating in rural areas, it can also develop the electrification of agricultural vehicles and agricultural machinery, which may improve the level of rural electrification and enhance the ability to absorb clean and renewable energy. .
4. The development trend: worthy of an important task
Generally speaking, energy has the problem of resource endowment, but if fossil energy such as coal, oil and natural gas is converted into non-fossil energy, it is essentially a process of energy transformation, but this requires a difficult process.
The adjustment of the energy structure is essentially a transformation. For example, the gradual shift of fossil energy to renewable resources such as solar energy, water energy, wind energy, geothermal energy and biomass energy is equivalent to focusing on converting the problem of resource endowment into the problem of technological progress and production capacity. It can include conversion to new resource endowment issues, such as the resource endowment problem of conversion to renewable energy.
However, compared with traditional fossil energy, the problem of renewable energy resource endowment is relatively small. For example, solar energy is inexhaustible and inexhaustible.
(1) China is expected to lead the global low-carbon development
For China to achieve clean and low-carbon development, and then achieve the "dual-carbon" goal, the fundamental way is to adjust the energy structure, from fossil energy-based to renewable energy-based.
As the world's second largest economy and a global manufacturing center, China's photovoltaic power generation industry continues to develop healthily and rapidly, and will become an important support for the global response to climate change, promoting energy transformation, and building a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system.
Judging from the development in recent years, the global silicon material and silicon wafer industry layout is continuing to shift to the Chinese market, and China has taken the leading position in the world.
The main reasons for this trend include: First, China's technological innovation capability has been continuously enhanced, which has led to greater advantages in technology, kWh cost, and product quality in China's silicon material and silicon wafer links; Advantages such as cost and scale effect; third, due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, some overseas silicon material and silicon wafer companies were forced to reduce, suspend or close production, which promoted the transfer of global production capacity.
(2) The state will continue to guide policies
In November 2021, 15 departments including the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the National Rural Revitalization Administration, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "14th Five-Year Plan to Support Old Revolutionary Areas to Consolidate, Expand, and Eliminate Poverty Alleviation Achievements to Connect and Promote Rural Revitalization Implementation Plan" It is clear that the old revolutionary base areas are supported to actively promote the county-wide distributed photovoltaic development pilot, in order to promote the modernization of agriculture and rural areas, and provide solid support for the socialist modernization construction.
On May 14, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting the High-quality Development of New Energy in the New Era", proposing that by 2025, the roof photovoltaic coverage rate of new buildings in public institutions should reach 50%, encouraging public institutions Install photovoltaic or solar thermal utilization facilities in existing buildings.
On June 1, 2022, nine national departments jointly issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development", proposing that by 2025, the total consumption of renewable energy will account for about 18% of primary energy consumption, and the annual power generation from renewable energy will be During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the increase in renewable energy power generation accounted for more than 50% of the increase in electricity consumption in the whole society, of which wind power and solar power generation doubled.
In June 2022, the National Renewable Energy Development and Construction Situation Analysis Conference will be held, and the conference will clearly speed up the construction of large-scale photovoltaic major projects and major projects.
In 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and other nine departments jointly issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development", which also proposed to focus on promoting the development and utilization of rooftop photovoltaics.
(3) Future development needs to follow objective laws
In order to further promote the high-quality development of the industry, each link of China's photovoltaic industry chain also needs to focus on reducing costs and increasing efficiency, continuously deepening the upstream and downstream synergy of the industry chain, and accumulating a more solid foundation for promoting the photovoltaic industry to achieve greater and faster development.
However, the sustainable development of China's photovoltaic industry in the future must follow the following basic laws.
First of all, the laws of the market must be followed.
Market competition is the core law of the market. If a company lacks market competitiveness, it will eventually be ruthlessly abandoned by the market, so corporate profitability is crucial.
Secondly, the law of coordinated development must be followed.
Photovoltaic power generation has the characteristics of volatility, randomness and intermittence, which is not conducive to the safe and stable operation of the power system. Therefore, it is necessary to correctly understand the relationship between photovoltaic power generation and traditional power grids, and then promote the coordination of photovoltaic power generation with market players such as power grids and energy storage. develop.
(4) Continue to increase the scale of industrial development
China needs to intensify its efforts to plan and build a new energy supply and consumption system based on large photovoltaic bases, supported by clean, efficient, advanced and energy-saving coal power around it, and with stable, safe and reliable UHV transmission and transformation lines as the carrier.
China's vigorous development of the photovoltaic industry is expected to help improve the country's energy security capabilities, promote energy transformation and energy structure adjustment, and make significant contributions to the realization of the "dual carbon" goal.
In the long term in the future, China should build large-scale photovoltaic power generation bases focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas.
At present, in China, from the north to the south, from the desert Gobi to the roof of the world, and then to the vast plains, the development of the solar energy industry, especially the photovoltaic power generation industry, has shown great vitality.
The construction of large-scale photovoltaic bases focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas in China has already kicked off, and a large number of photovoltaic base projects have already started construction.
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's renewable energy power generation increment will account for more than 50% of the total electricity consumption increase in the whole society, of which solar power generation will double.
(5) Continue to promote technological innovation
China should continue to increase solar energy timely research and development efforts to promote the development of innovative technologies.
Technological innovation is always the main theme. In the future, China's photovoltaic industry will continue to innovate and tackle tough problems, especially strengthening the innovation of key core technologies in the industrial chain, thereby driving the overall upgrading of industrial chain equipment and markets, and realizing a virtuous circle of industrial chain development.
China needs to focus on promoting the coordinated development of upstream and downstream links in the photovoltaic industry chain, including raw materials, equipment manufacturing, and system applications. While consolidating industrial advantages, it needs to make up for the shortcomings of development and realize the optimization and upgrading of the photovoltaic industry chain.
(6) Promote the coordinated development of the industry
In the future, China will optimize the development mode and actively promote the distributed development of photovoltaic power generation in the southern Middle East.
On the production side, we must adhere to both centralized and distributed development. We must not only accelerate the construction of large-scale photovoltaic bases focusing on deserts, Gobi, and desert areas, but also pay attention to promoting the distributed application of the solar industry in the industrial and construction fields.
On the consumption side, not only encourage qualified industrial enterprises and industrial parks to directly build industrial green microgrids and integrated source-grid-load-storage projects, increase the proportion of solar power generation for end-use energy, but also focus on guiding the whole society to indirectly consume green power such as solar energy , and promote the full consumption of renewable energy such as solar energy by promoting green power trading pilots.
(7) Focus on promoting the building power supply and distribution system
At present, the country is implementing a new infrastructure strategy, in which the construction of rooftop photovoltaic systems can become an important part of the new infrastructure strategy, which is conducive to boosting economic stability and recovery.
Vigorously promoting the construction of building power supply and distribution systems can develop high-end manufacturing for the country for a long period of time in the future, continuously provide clean energy, and actively promote the rapid development of a number of emerging industries, with significant joint effects.
As a unified system, the construction and operation of the building power supply and distribution system can effectively reduce the cost of power operation, and then it is economically feasible and sustainable.
At present, China's photovoltaic cells, wind power generation equipment, new batteries, electric vehicles, charging piles, DC power supply and distribution, electrified agricultural machinery and other industries are rapidly rising, and the construction of building power supply and distribution systems can further promote the vigorous development of these emerging industries.
For rooftop photovoltaic construction, although it may require a large amount of expenditure, the effect may be very obvious. Even in the peak electricity consumption in summer, photovoltaic power generation may be enough to cover household electricity, and the remaining electricity can also be integrated into the grid, and then Get extra income.
If it is estimated based on 20% of the roof area and 2% of the Gobi and desert areas to install solar power generation equipment, then the available solar energy in China is about 2.2 billion kilowatts.
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China will build 1,000 photovoltaic demonstration villages, and it is expected that the installed rate of distributed photovoltaics in new industrial parks and large public buildings will reach more than 50%.
Rooftop photovoltaic construction requires the country to implement a unified plan to build and transform an integrated building power supply and distribution system of "photovoltaic + DC + intelligent charging piles", rather than going it alone.
China promotes the rapid development of rooftop photovoltaics, which indicates that the era of photovoltaics for all people is coming, and it also indicates that the photovoltaic industry is full of vitality and is definitely a sunrise industry in the future.
Any new thing is very difficult to develop, and the cost is very important. Without economic feasibility, there is no real market space.
The reason why the Chinese public can gradually accept the installation of photovoltaic power generation systems on their own roofs is the cost and economy. Generally speaking, the cost of photovoltaic power generation is lower than the cost of thermal power generation, and the market competitiveness has been greatly improved.
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